Showing posts with label Obamacare. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Obamacare. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

THE CBO REPORT: THE TIMES BLOWS IT; THE POST DOESN'T


I never took economics, but even I know there are 2 basics to most markets, including the labor market: supply and demand.

I was, for a few years, quite active in AFTRA, the broadcasters’ union, serving on the NY Local Board, and as official shop steward or unofficial “point man” on labor issues at 2 radio stations and one TV news operations.  This gave me a fine appreciation of how that worked in labor negotiations:  the people who supplied the labor might push up the price of a job, but those who chose to demand controlled how many jobs were available.

Someone please tell the NY Times.

Health Care Law Projected to Cut the Labor Force”

That’s how the Times headlined its online report on a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment of the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA a.k.a. “Obamacare”) on the American workforce.





First, this is not about jobs. It’s about workers — and the choices they make.” 

Kessler then explains, -- Times editors and staff take note – how ACA affects the workforce.  “The health insurance subsidies in the law,” he says, are “a substantial benefit that decreases as people earn more money, so at a certain point, a person has to choose between earning more money or continuing to get the maximum help with health insurance payments.”

 In other words, closer to my workforce experience, Obamacare frees (admittedly at the public expense) some people to ask the one labor question whose answer they control: “Is this job worth it?”

 Even if, in the CBO’s analysis, 2.3 million people over the next 10 years say, “Hell, No!” this does not mean they will not be replaced.

 Even if some employers will reduce their full-time workforce to duck contributing to their employees’ health insurance, this does not mean their hours will not be re-claimed by someone else.

All that comes from the demand side of the ledger.  The employer will hire as many workers as he needs, and smart employers will deploy them in the most efficient manner (even if that means fewer, but full-time workers rather than the greatest use of cheaper part-timers.)

Or, as WaPo’s Kessler points out, the CBO, -- his words --, “virtually screams,” its not-hard-to-understand analysis.  “The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses’ demand for labor, so it will [produce neither] an increase in unemployment or underemployment.

Rather than detail for you the Times’ mentally and politically unbalanced story, take a look for yourself at the Gray Lady’s triangulation: (1) the Republicans say this and this and this (2) which we admit doesn’t really square with the facts, but (3) what the Democrats give us is drivel.

Fair enough, but how does that correct the complete misconception of the CBO report with which the Times leads and frames the story?

I would quibble with one assumption Kessler makes:  “All things being equal, in a normally functioning economy, the total demand for jobs would equal 95 percent of the supply of jobs. So … over time, the nation does end up with a slightly smaller economy.”

Sounds like a mathematical certainty; except that it does not describe the real world (any more than the allegedly shrinking official unemployment rate describes the real world of job seekers’ opportunities).  Kessler assumes that the folks who “opt out” disappear, at least in terms of their net contribution to the economy.  But some of these people will continue to work, some of these will work “off-the-books” or in what we call “the black economy.”  A few will create new enterprises which in turn produce more jobs and more returns to both the official and unofficial economies.  It is possible the shifts in the workforce attendant upon ACA's subsidies will actually benefit the economy, not shrink it.

In free market terms, the folks whose main motivation at work was to protect their health benefits should be replaced by workers with more productive motivations.  One would bet (heavily) we are talking mostly about the replacement of older workers by younger, perhaps more vigorous, perhaps more flexible, perhaps more adaptable to the ever-changing needs of the employer.  Hang me for a geezer-traitor.

If the economy is to work, we should think not in terms of two workers for the price of 1.5, but 3 times the productive output from the cost of 2.5 new workers.

In any case, here’s one final lesson for the Times from the great Fact Checker of the Post: “If someone says they decided to leave their job for personal reasons, most people would not say they ‘lost’ their jobs. They simply decided not to work.”

 

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

GAMESMEN, GO HOME



These days, it seems too many people have come to believe, as Shakespeare almost put it, “All the world's a game, And all the men and women merely players.”

Here are 2 deadly serious examples of what I mean.

Let the NSA spy indiscriminately on us, and we’ll try and beat them at their own game.

From Silicon Valley to the South Pacific,” the Associated Press reported this week, “counterattacks to revelations of widespread National Security Agency surveillance are taking shape, from a surge of new encrypted email programs to technology that sprinkles the Internet with red flag terms to confuse would-be snoops.”


In a way, this report also plays a popular news media game, the “trend” story, in which a few micro-scale fragments of the real world are inflated into a global movement. 

Here is some of the evidence cited by the AP to show a digital world enflamed:

--- “[Encryption] Developer Jeff Lyon in Santa Clara, Calif., said that 2,000 users have installed [his Flagger service] to date.”

--- “Pretty Good Privacy, or PGP, a free encryption service was being loaded about 600 times a day in the month before Snowden’s revelations broke. Two months later, that had more than doubled to 1,380, according to a running tally maintained by programmer Kristian Fiskerstrand.”

--- “Berlin-based email provider Posteo claims to have seen a 150 percent surge in paid subscribers due to the “Snowden effect,” to 25,000 in the past four months.”

WOWIE ZOWIE!!! Add ‘em all together, and accept the advocates’ figures as accurate, and you get about 100,000 new encryptors out of, what, a billion users of the global internet.

But wait, AP says, there’s more: “CryptoParties are springing up around the world as well. They are small gatherings where hosts teach attendees, who bring their digital devices, how to download and use encrypted email and secure Internet browsers.”

That’ll show those NSA bastards!

The “trend” would be laughable were the plans of these “digital rebels” not so awful.

Flagger Boy Lyons says, “The goal here is to get a critical mass of people flooding the Internet with noise and make a statement of civil disobedience.”
While Electronic Frontier Foundation activist Parker Higgens in San Francisco wants everybody to encrypt, because, he says, “Encryption loses its value as an indicator of possible malfeasance if everyone is using it.”


Absurd, absurder, reductio ad absurdum: “University of Auckland associate professor Gehan Gunasekara said he’s received ‘overwhelming support’ for his proposal to ‘lead the spooks in a merry dance,’ visiting radical websites, setting up multiple online identities and making up hypothetical ‘friends.’

“And ‘pretty soon everyone in New Zealand will have to be under surveillance,’ he said.”

Hey, schmuck!  That’s what the surveillance system is set up to do, and if you think you and all your friends have the budget to out-run the spooks, good luck to you. 

Increasing the scale of data-mining is as much of a challenge to the security services as a hard, straight fastball down the middle is to a big league hitter.  And what’s the virtue of camouflaging serious encryption with fun’n’games versions?

The point here is not to stir the hornets’ nest, make ‘em mad, make ‘em even more hyperactive.  It is the opposite, to encourage, and if necessary, force the NSA, GCHQ and whatever the hell New Zealand calls its spook service,--  which is already part of the NSA-led “Mighty Five” intelligence collaborative -- to calm down, be more selective and more rational in their surveillance collection, collation and analysis.

And making that happen is not an Effing game, any more than is legitimate national security surveillance. The NSA et al have real jobs to do, including protecting our freewheeling society from real enemies, whose plots, while far fewer than the spooks and their budgets and their tactics seem to assume, still can be truly destructive.

That their exaggerated “trend” might have dangerous real world effects is something AP left out of their story.

The gamesmanship of this new generation of Jerry Rubin-style gigabit tricksters is repellant enough, but it is literally amateur night compared to the game-playing radical-right Republicans of the House of Representatives.

To them, the functions of the US Government and its financial credibility are just tokens in a game to force their will down the throat of that African-American (and can you see them smirking at the first half of that description?) President Barack Obama.

To them, the serious consequences of default or a government AWOL, matter less than their sense of “fair play.” 

 “You can’t just demand pure capitulation,” Boehner-buddy Representative Tom Cole, (R-OK), said,   “Negotiations don’t work that way.”

A senseless sentiment amped-up by Tea Party Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who whined: "We’re not going to be disrespected.  We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is.”

Stutzman seems to think that, like his 8 year old daughter, he should get a “self-esteem” trophy for having played the game and lost.

Not in the real world.  In the world, you need both votes and brains to win. 

Unless, like Congressman Cole, you can tell the Washington Post that losing on Obamacare, losing on the shutdown, losing on default, is really a win, because it “forces” President Obama to do what he’s been asking to do for months now, use the normal legislative process to carve out changes in Federal taxing and spending.


“Any agreement, Cole told the Post, that creates a process to litigate broader budget issues would achieve an important GOP goal. ‘If you’re able to do that and you’re able to get some savings out of the entitlement portion of the budget, those aren’t Republican defeats. They are Republican victories.’”

Cole and Boehner are free to say that, but Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) knows better.  What the GOP will get out of their months of Provocation Theater will be, he says, “a tough vote.”

As the Post put it, “The misguided assault on the health-care law had diverted attention from more meaningful efforts to overhaul the tax code and rein in spending on Medicare and Social Security, he said. And now time has run out for achieving those goals.

“’Let’s just spell out what’s happened:’ Cole said, ‘We’ve basically blown the last two months with some of our members and a lot of the House focused on a shiny object that was never going to happen.’”

But, of course, the game isn’t over yet.  Bloodied, beaten, disgraced before an American voting public which has rarely polled so strongly their disapproval of the Republican Party, the GOP can’t wait to do it all over again.  For the next round of negotiations, their booby prize, they are clinging to their shameful tactic: they will once again hold the functions of the government and its full faith and credit hostage against new dates, in January and February 2014.

Let us say it one more time, civilly and quietly, in hopes that some Republicans might understand: a functioning government which pays its debts on time is something Americans want to believe in, not play with.

 

Thursday, October 3, 2013

DO IT NOW, MR. SPEAKER!


Well, here’s one species of political madness we might not have to worry about: the US defaulting on its national debt.

The NY Times says, Republican House leader John Boehner will not allow it to happen.


Speaker John A. Boehner has told colleagues that he is determined to prevent a federal default and is willing to pass a measure through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes, according to multiple House Republicans.

If I might be permitted a suggestion:  DO IT NOW, MR. SPEAKER!

As relieved as I was to read the Times headline and Ashley Parker and Annie Lowry’s well-reported story, I wondered why, if Boehner had made his decision, he was not acting on it immediately.

Every day the Republican leader waits, he adds to uncertainty and anxiety in the nation and the world’s markets.  This uncertainty and anxiety is pure torment to most participants, but it represents a predatory opportunity to a few.  “Frightened” creditors are entitled to demand a bigger payoff from their “uncertain” borrowers; they raise interest rates.  Every rise in interest rates on public debt comes right out of taxpayer’s pockets; every rise in private debt stalls projects and kills jobs.  Every rise in interest rates displaces wealth, both within the economy and without; it shifts money from the 99% to the 1%, and from the United States to its creditors abroad, like China.

The politically damaging idea that the Grand Old Party is the political organization that consistently makes the poor poorer and the rich richer (and today, the very, very rich, very, very much richer) is not one that wants reinforcing.  But the current and abhorrent “hostage-taking” of the nation’s credit in order to re-litigate Obamacare does just that: it puts the Republican brand on an artificial crisis with very real effects, including tossing a bonus bundle of Big Money to the people in the world who need and deserve it least.

Not only is the threatened default a GOP-manufactured disaster, it is unnecessary, redundant.  Hostage situations are one area of life where 2 heads are not better than one.  The threat to take one life makes the point.

The real fight here is not over our debt, anyway.  It’s about how American acquired it, not just how much we spend or owe, but what we get for it, or lose by skimping.  I think the Republicans are dead wrong taking the federal Budget hostage, shutting down the government and causing for Americans completely avoidable economic losses and personal inconveniences.  There are plenty of legitimate legislative ways to take on every investment, expense or program thought by the Tea Party and others to be wrong.  The way for Republicans to change laws is available within the rules and customs of Congress.  It has been used for almost 225 years.  It is shameful that rather than do the jobs for which they were elected, House Republicans are choosing to paralyze and de-populate the government to amplify their already-clear objections to what clear (if secret, on the House side) majorities of Senators and Representatives are ready to vote for.

But ya gotta do what ya gotta do.  “Young guns” and “tea bags,” be that way!  I am confident you will pay politically for the shutdown, but you will have been loudly heard on the money issues you care about most.

But, no one needs to do that twice.

So, GOP, be happy with your one hostage issue and flail way!  Let the other hostage free! 

The national debt is a fact not an issue.  Trifling with America’s “full faith and credit” is an economic and moral crime.

Recognize that, by moving immediately to raise the limit on the debt, and focusing your (to me, mostly mean-spirited, intellectually shoddy) arguments on your real targets: shrinking the government by down-scaling the budget.

Mr. Speaker, why wait another minute, another day.  Move on the debt ceiling NOW!

 

  

 

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

KILLING OBAMACARE (AND AMERICA)


Q.  How do countries go to Hell, and become “failed states?”

A.  When a critical mass of the population have more loyalty to something other than their nation.

My experience in failed states like Iraq and Afghanistan and close=to-failure countries like Pakistan, Congo and Rwanda, convinces me, it’s as simple as that.

When enough people have some prior claim of loyalty and obligation that supersedes their connection to their country and its government, that state is headed towards  dysfunction and death.

In Iraq today, there are still not enough people who put loyalty to their nation ahead of their sect or region, or their obligation to some political party, warlord, imam or sheikh.  There is  a government of Iran-manipulated Shia supremists led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, but it is justly hated by Iraq’s Sunni minority, disregarded by most Kurds, and alienated from many Shi’ites who are not Tehran fanboys, or want more tolerance for Others (especially Sunnis with whom many Shiites have intermarried), who resent government corruption and ineptitude, or simply take orders from their own mosque, tribe, clan, or some other Shia politician. The result: political paralysis, and uncontrolled violence beyond the reach of the state.

Afghanistan as a nation-state is even more of a fiction than Iraq.  The Hamid Karzai government is Pashtun-supremist in a country where Pashtuns are (unlike the Iraqi Shia) not a majority, just the largest minority.  It generally has only as much support as it can buy, because those not on the corruption gravy train, including many Pashtuns, are shamed as well as appalled by the greed and ineffectuality of every arm of the state, civil, military or police. Minority Uzbeks, Tadjiks, Hazara or Baluch identify their interests ethnically, religiously, regionally or by diktat of tribal, clan or family elders.  They may be Afghan in their passports or papers, but not in their hearts.

I grew up believing that “I am an American” was, short of family loyalty to Mom, Dad and my brothers, what was printed deepest in my heart.

I was conscious and sincere when I pledged my allegiance to the flag and the country for which it stands.

I was proud to be a Jew and rooted for the Jews in Israel and for Sandy Koufax and Al Rosen, Jan Peerce and Richard Tucker.  But it was sweeter that they, too, were Jewish Americans.

For a time, growing up in Richmond,  (before I became conscious of its racist politics) I was gratified to be a Virginian, the home state of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Patrick Henry and Robert E, Lee, but that was because of what they meant to American history.

We were Democrats in my family, and we took shots at Ike’s constant golfing.  We were no country-clubbers and my Uncle Murray taught me a Tech Sergeant’s suspicion of Generals, but he was our President.

We respected, or at least we tolerated him and his works because we’d elected him (just without my family’s votes).

We were Americans, and we included everyone who lived here, everyone who said they, too were Americans.  We had our differences and our disagreements, we prayed in a variety of formulations to a variety of deities; we traced our lineages to different points of the globe, but we were a nation united.

Today, we have become a nation divided, fractured into smithereens, hammered on the hard anvils of race, class, gender, and accumulated wealth, into particular identities, distinct and distant from a melded loyalty to the common good.

According to Ed O’Keefe in the Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/17/meet-the-house-republicans-who-support-delaying-obamacare/

73 Republican Congressmen are so in hate with Obamacare that they will close down the government unless it is postponed for a year.  At least 45 are willing to stick with their beef with the healthcare law that they will renounce America’s debt and default, unless they get to tie the country’s social safety net into a 365-day knot.

Is it loyalty to a Tea Party ideology, a radical take on “conservatism,” that is more important to these people than the faith and credit of their country or the functioning of its people’s government?

The demography of the Tea Party as well as the intended victims of most of its political agenda suggests the loyalty is not ideological as much as racial.  Why should we generally wealthier and more successful White people be asked to fund services used disproportionately by poorer, less accomplished Blacks and Browns?

This color-coded politics may help to explain the T-baggers’ obsession with Obamacare, named for and credited to America’s first Black President.  Obama’s overthrow has been the shocking, Party-at-all-costs-even-those-to-the-country policy of mainstream Republicans as well as the far-right wing-nuts, since Day 1 of his presidency.  They loathed the White Clinton, but with nothing like the negationality of this.

On the other hand, the middling social and economic rank of most members of the Earl Grey Brigade, married to policies that consistently transfer economic resources and opportunities from the middle class to the top 1%, suggests a manipulation of poorer fools by much better-off politicians to benefit the really rich who pay for their public careers.


In Florida, for example (and, report Lizette Alvarez and Robert Pear in the NY Times,


in Republican-run Missouri, Ohio and Georgia), Obamacare is being undermined to prevent citizens from getting the best medical insurance bang for their bucks.  Among the cheap tricks, with potentially expensive consequences for mostly poor and elderly people of African- or Latin-American backgrounds, (but also millions of poor and middle-class Florida Whites), include barring Federally-funded “navigators” from access to county health facilities – where many poor and uninsured people go for medical treatment.  The idea is to prevent them from guiding customers to the medical insurance coverage that best suits their needs and budgets.

Florida Governor Rick Scott says he’s afraid the “navigators,” in gathering facts to help them refine their searches for the best deal available, will breach citizens’ privacy.  Of course, every one of the navigators’ questions and more would have been routinely asked of any of those citizens had they sought care at one of Scott’s dozens of Columbia/HCA hospitals back in the 1990s. 

That was when Scott had leveraged Columbia/HCA into the largest medical care network in the country.  He did this with almost no invested capital, but a pyramid of debt – the very arrangement he most despises when government does it.  Of course, the company he ran had to plead guilty to more than a dozen federal charges of overbilling Medicare and Medicaid and trying to cover it up, and wound up paying close to $2 billion in settlement money, which also made it number one in its field in America. 

Scott crawled away from the wreckage with a $10 million golden parachute and an estimated $350 million in stock, and although his own Board forced him to resign, a Republican Justice Department in Washington chose not to prosecute him.

Hey, the guy’s a pioneer, too big to jail before bigness really went bad. .

Gov. Scott’s loyalty to the moguls of medical care has superseded his responsibilities to his state’s citizens in a uniquely egregious way.

No other state has done this: even if assisted shopping and open competition get Florida customers lower healthcare prices, they won’t be allowed to benefit from them for at least two years.  That’s how long the Legislature has banned the State Insurance Commissioner from setting new (presumably lower) rates for health insurance.

“In other states,” the Times notes, Obamacare has allowed “insurance commissioners to obtain better deals for consumers.”


says Florida presently has 4 million people with no health insurance, of whom close to 600,000 are Hispanics.  Chang reports Federal Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius emphasized that “a higher proportion of Hispanic Americans are uninsured and eligible for health coverage benefits under the law than the rest of the population.”

Once Americans would have seen this concentration of injustice as a cause for concern.  But Scott and his fellow Republicans are running on a record of “cutting the herd” of American citizens by denying subsidized medical coverage to those who need it most

The Governor, who largely financed his own election with money he “earned” at his criminal corporation, conspired with the Legislature to refuse Federal funding (100% for the first 3 years, 90% thereafter) to extend Medicaid to what the Herald says is “an estimated 800,000 to 1.3 million residents who are now uninsured.”      

The expansion, the Herald says, would offer Medicaid “to those earning up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level -- about $15,000 a year for an individual.  Now, “In Florida, an adult must have a dependent child and earn no more than 19 percent of the poverty level to be eligible for Medicaid.” 

 

Do the math: that means, to get Medicaid coverage in Florida you can make no more than $36.50 a week.  $40 a week, $160 a month, you’re out!  Pay for your own medical bills.

 

Of course, you can’t, which is why Jacksonville’s Florida Sun-Times reports,


“Florida’s failure to take federal dollars and extend Medicaid coverage could have serious consequences for the state’s major teaching hospitals such as UF Health Jacksonville (formerly Shands Jacksonville) and Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami, because they treat a disproportionate number of uninsured patients, U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown said.”

Is it that rich Gov. Scott so hates poor people and the hospitals that serve them that he’d let ‘em all die rather than breach his commitment to “conservative philosophy?”  Or is just that his loyalty to the Republican Party, or the private institutions that profit from the health care industry is simply greater than his loyalty to America and its commonweal?

Either way, he and the rest of the disloyal opposition are killing our country.